Arriva plc (ARI)

Discount cash flow analysis

Buy Undervalued by 39202.3%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Arriva plc, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in £ millions
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% £174.68 £172.33 £170.05
Terminal Growth% 0 £175.29 £172.93 £170.64
  +1% £175.92 £173.54 £171.23

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of £172.93 (undervalued by 39202.27%) - 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of £5.51 (undervalued by 0.36%) - over 12 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 11
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): -2
Equity Value: 13
Number of Shares Outstanding: 31,000,000
Calculated value per share: £172.93

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.