Origin Energy Limited (ORG)

Discount cash flow analysis

Buy Undervalued by 196.5%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Origin Energy Limited, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $14.51 $14.38 $14.26
Terminal Growth% 0 $14.57 $14.44 $14.31
  +1% $14.63 $14.50 $14.37

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $5.90 (undervalued by 21.15%) - 10 months ago
  • ankitaj created a new valuation of $4.95 (overvalued by 69.85%) - 7 years ago
  • ankitaj created a new valuation of $4.96 (overvalued by 69.79%) - 7 years ago
  • IceyDoctor created a new valuation of $4.63 (overvalued by 71.72%) - almost 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $14.44 (overvalued by 1.5%) - almost 8 years ago
  • gordonsk created a new valuation of $20.15 (undervalued by 42.4%) - over 8 years ago
  • Sam created a new valuation of $10.75 (overvalued by 22.94%) - over 9 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 6,813
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 2,559
Equity Value: 12,804
Number of Shares Outstanding: 873,000,000
Calculated value per share: $14.44

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.