Nuplex Industries Limited (NPX)

Discount cash flow analysis

Within margin of safety Undervalued by 0.0%

5% margin of safety What's this?

close

How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Nuplex Industries Limited, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

Spacer
Values in $ millions
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $2.82 $2.75 $2.68
Terminal Growth% 0 $2.84 $2.77 $2.70
  +1% $2.86 $2.79 $2.72

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • kaboodle created a new valuation of $4.51 (undervalued by 33.43%) - over 7 years ago
  • Scarydog created a new valuation of $4.00 (undervalued by 53.26%) - almost 8 years ago
  • vikx01 created a new valuation of $3.97 (undervalued by 69.66%) - 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $2.77 (undervalued by 42.78%) - 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $1.32 (overvalued by 20.48%) - over 8 years ago
  • Aarkus created a new valuation of $0.49 (undervalued by 16.67%) - over 8 years ago
  • kaboodle created a new valuation of $0.50 (undervalued by 8.7%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $0.30 (undervalued by 3.45%) - over 8 years ago
  • dubio created a new valuation of $0.67 (undervalued by 97.06%) - over 8 years ago
  • gordonsk created a new valuation of $1.15 (undervalued by 125.49%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $1.15 (undervalued by 11.65%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $2.22 (undervalued by 115.53%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $3.71 (undervalued by 26.19%) - almost 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $3.29 (undervalued by 11.9%) - almost 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $3.79 (overvalued by 0.79%) - almost 9 years ago
  • NZXCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $6.05 (undervalued by 14.15%) - almost 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $6.00 (undervalued by 1.87%) - over 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $6.05 (overvalued by 1.63%) - over 9 years ago

Comments

No comments yet. Login to comment.

The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 0
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 351
Equity Value: 368
Number of Shares Outstanding: 189,000,000
Calculated value per share: $2.77

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.