AMEC plc (AMEC)

Discount cash flow analysis

Within margin of safety Undervalued by 3.5%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for AMEC plc, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in £ millions
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% £5.77 £5.68 £5.59
Terminal Growth% 0 £5.78 £5.69 £5.60
  +1% £5.79 £5.70 £5.61

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of £5.69 (undervalued by 3.45%) - over 4 years ago
  • bill101 created a new valuation of £6.47 (undervalued by 2.37%) - almost 12 years ago
  • boris created a new valuation of £6.33 (undervalued by 3.09%) - almost 12 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of £5.94 (undervalued by 11.24%) - 12 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 3,104
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 960
Equity Value: 2,144
Number of Shares Outstanding: 389,000,000
Calculated value per share: £5.69

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.