Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 24.0%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Price history

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $55.53 $54.40 $53.30
Terminal Growth% 0 $56.04 $54.88 $53.77
  +1% $56.55 $55.37 $54.24

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $62.99 (overvalued by 12.74%) - 8 months ago
  • GeraldRoberson created a new valuation of $53.31 (overvalued by 1.82%) - almost 6 years ago
  • ssoules created a new valuation of $142.71 (undervalued by 178.73%) - over 6 years ago
  • hafizalshaban created a new valuation of $33.19 (overvalued by 38.66%) - 7 years ago
  • hafizalshaban created a new valuation of $33.19 (overvalued by 38.66%) - 7 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $51.50 (overvalued by 2.72%) - over 7 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $50.99 (undervalued by 2.64%) - over 7 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $77.32 (undervalued by 55.64%) - over 7 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $194.44 (undervalued by 291.38%) - over 7 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $138.21 (undervalued by 178.2%) - over 7 years ago
  • jcook62 created a new valuation of $79.21 (undervalued by 61.39%) - over 7 years ago
  • germas88 created a new valuation of $55.01 (undervalued by 13.4%) - 8 years ago
  • SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $43.60 (overvalued by 15.77%) - 8 years ago
  • dweis created a new valuation of $39.90 (overvalued by 24.32%) - over 8 years ago
  • TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $54.88 (overvalued by 6.75%) - over 8 years ago
  • Diegoengel created a new valuation of $51.57 (overvalued by 10.23%) - almost 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $59.35 (undervalued by 5.6%) - 9 years ago
  • TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $51.71 (overvalued by 7.99%) - 9 years ago

Comments

Running The Numbers – Wal-Mart ($WMT) Looks Expensive

This valuation is part of this blog post:

http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/10/running-the-numbers-wal-mart-wmt-looks-expensive/

Our assumptions are revenues of US$408.0 billion in 2008 growing to US$470.0 billion in 2010. We have used a flat EBITDA margin of 7.5% to 2010. Our terminal growth rate is 3.5%. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$14.5 billion. Our WACC (discount rate) is 8.0%. All of these assumptions can be amended in the Valuecruncher on-line valuation model to adjust the valuation. Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the $WMT balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.

Our valuation is sensitive to the discount rate assumption. If we drop the discount rate to 7.5% then the valuation rises to US$62.84 6.78% above the current share price of US$58.85.

By TheCrunchBlog, over 8 years ago

The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 323,095
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 39,102
Equity Value: 231,514
Number of Shares Outstanding: 3,933,000,000
Calculated value per share: $54.88

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.