The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 71.4%

5% margin of safety What's this?


How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for The Walt Disney Company, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Price history

Sensitivity matrix

Discount Rate %

  -1% $26.77 $26.33 $25.90
Terminal Growth% 0 $26.89 $26.45 $26.01
  +1% $27.01 $26.57 $26.13

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $59.45 (overvalued by 35.65%) - over 1 year ago
  • mvacca created a new valuation of $34.51 (undervalued by 2.46%) - over 7 years ago
  • SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $17.91 (undervalued by 0.34%) - almost 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $19.97 (undervalued by 20.23%) - almost 9 years ago
  • TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $26.45 (undervalued by 23.77%) - over 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $25.04 (undervalued by 8.63%) - over 9 years ago


Running The Numbers - placing an intrinsic value on Micky Mouse ($DIS)

This valuation is part of this blog post:


Revenue: Reuters aggregates 18 analysts covering $DIS and these analysts have a mean estimate of 2009 revenues of US$38.9 billion. For our analysis we have used US$38.5 billion in 2009, US$40.0 billion in 2010 and US$41.0 billion in 2011.

Profitability: We have used an EBITDA margin of 20.0% flat to 2011. Reuters has $DIS‘s EBITD margin at 24.3% last year and 19.1% over the last five-years.

Capital Expenditure: We have assumed capital expenditures of US$1.75 billion per annum moving forward.

Discount Rate: 10.0%.

Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0%.

Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt the $DIS balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.

By TheCrunchBlog, over 9 years ago

The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 185,138
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 11,776
Equity Value: 40,099
Number of Shares Outstanding: 1,876,000,000
Calculated value per share: $26.45

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.

Calcuation of EV


  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.



  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.

CAPM model


  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.