Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 28.4%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Price history

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $52.34 $51.25 $50.19
Terminal Growth% 0 $52.82 $51.71 $50.64
  +1% $53.30 $52.18 $51.09

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $62.99 (overvalued by 12.74%) - 12 months ago
  • GeraldRoberson created a new valuation of $53.31 (overvalued by 1.82%) - over 6 years ago
  • ssoules created a new valuation of $142.71 (undervalued by 178.73%) - 7 years ago
  • hafizalshaban created a new valuation of $33.19 (overvalued by 38.66%) - over 7 years ago
  • hafizalshaban created a new valuation of $33.19 (overvalued by 38.66%) - over 7 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $51.50 (overvalued by 2.72%) - over 7 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $50.99 (undervalued by 2.64%) - almost 8 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $77.32 (undervalued by 55.64%) - almost 8 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $194.44 (undervalued by 291.38%) - almost 8 years ago
  • michaeljk2 created a new valuation of $138.21 (undervalued by 178.2%) - almost 8 years ago
  • jcook62 created a new valuation of $79.21 (undervalued by 61.39%) - almost 8 years ago
  • germas88 created a new valuation of $55.01 (undervalued by 13.4%) - over 8 years ago
  • SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $43.60 (overvalued by 15.77%) - over 8 years ago
  • dweis created a new valuation of $39.90 (overvalued by 24.32%) - almost 9 years ago
  • TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $54.88 (overvalued by 6.75%) - almost 9 years ago
  • Diegoengel created a new valuation of $51.57 (overvalued by 10.23%) - 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $59.35 (undervalued by 5.6%) - over 9 years ago
  • TheCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $51.71 (overvalued by 7.99%) - over 9 years ago

Comments

A DCF Valuation Of Wal-Mart

This valuation is part of this blog post:

http://blog.valuecruncher.com/2008/07/a-dcf-valuation-of-wal-mart-wmt/

Wal-Mart grew revenues from US$284.3 billion in 2005 to US$378.8 billion in 2008 – a 10% compound annual growth rate. Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are US$405.0 billion in 2009 growing to US$465.0 billion in 2011 – a 7% compound annual growth rate. We have projected EBITDA margins to be flat at 7.5%. We have used a terminal growth rate of 3.5%. We calculated this terminal growth rate based on year three growth of 6.9% dropping to a 3% stable growth rate by year 10. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$14.5 billion. We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 8%.

By TheCrunchBlog, about 9 years ago

The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 323,799
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 39,102
Equity Value: 221,637
Number of Shares Outstanding: 3,943,000,000
Calculated value per share: $51.71

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.