Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 27.2%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Juniper Networks, Inc., based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $16.98 $16.81 $16.64
Terminal Growth% 0 $17.03 $16.85 $16.68
  +1% $17.07 $16.89 $16.72

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $18.53 (overvalued by 19.96%) - over 5 years ago
  • sdwarkan created a new valuation of $18.60 (undervalued by 1.58%) - over 8 years ago
  • sdwarkan created a new valuation of $16.92 (overvalued by 7.59%) - over 8 years ago
  • sdwarkan created a new valuation of $15.52 (overvalued by 15.24%) - over 8 years ago
  • sdwarkan created a new valuation of $14.41 (overvalued by 21.3%) - over 8 years ago
  • sdwarkan created a new valuation of $14.41 (overvalued by 21.3%) - over 8 years ago
  • sdwarkan created a new valuation of $14.41 (overvalued by 21.3%) - over 8 years ago
  • SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $15.97 (undervalued by 5.62%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $16.85 (undervalued by 17.75%) - over 8 years ago
  • dweis created a new valuation of $14.02 (overvalued by 4.37%) - almost 9 years ago
  • diligens created a new valuation of $27.93 (undervalued by 5.12%) - 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $27.35 (overvalued by 2.57%) - over 9 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 9,895
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): -2,191
Equity Value: 7,471
Number of Shares Outstanding: 522,000,000
Calculated value per share: $16.85

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.