Express Scripts, Inc. (ESRX)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 18.0%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Express Scripts, Inc., based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $58.94 $57.97 $57.04
Terminal Growth% 0 $59.25 $58.28 $57.33
  +1% $59.58 $58.60 $57.64

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $2.18 (overvalued by 96.93%) - 8 months ago
  • SethWellbourne created a new valuation of $40.09 (overvalued by 10.97%) - 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $58.28 (undervalued by 20.74%) - 8 years ago
  • dweis created a new valuation of $49.86 (overvalued by 12.65%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $72.13 (undervalued by 3.4%) - 9 years ago
  • LordTrask created a new valuation of $86.16 (undervalued by 23.51%) - 9 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 18,822
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 1,229
Equity Value: 11,955
Number of Shares Outstanding: 247,000,000
Calculated value per share: $58.28

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.