Ebos Group Limited (EBO)

Discount cash flow analysis

Sell Overvalued by 74.3%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for Ebos Group Limited, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1% 		Discount Rate %
0%
1%
  -1% $4.92 $4.82 $4.73
Terminal Growth% 0 $4.95 $4.85 $4.76
  +1% $4.98 $4.88 $4.79

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $14.73 (overvalued by 22.06%) - 12 months ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $5.14 (overvalued by 3.02%) - over 8 years ago
  • gordonsk created a new valuation of $4.72 (overvalued by 1.67%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $4.72 (undervalued by 2.61%) - over 8 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $4.28 (overvalued by 1.61%) - almost 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $4.85 (undervalued by 1.04%) - over 9 years ago

Comments

Ebos Assumptions

WACC at 11.5% per PWC Cost of Capital Report (report uses 11.4%). LTG at NZ long-run growth of 3.5%. Tax at 30%. EBITDA margins dropping to 3% in 2010.

By KiwiEMH, over 9 years ago

The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 879
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): 8
Equity Value: 221
Number of Shares Outstanding: 46,000,000
Calculated value per share: $4.85

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.

Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.

Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.

CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.