New Zealand Exchange Limited (NZX)

Discount cash flow analysis

Buy Undervalued by 772.0%

5% margin of safety What's this?

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How does this work?

This is an interactive analyst report for New Zealand Exchange Limited, based on a discounted cash flow valuation approach.

You can modify the assumptions and the valuation will be updated automatically. You can also save and share your valuation.

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Values in $ millions
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 
                 
               
 

What will the revenues be in the future?

Growth beyond year three is driven by the terminal growth rate.

Sensitivity matrix

   
-1%
Discount Rate %
0%

1%
  -1% $9.41 $9.28 $9.15
Terminal Growth% 0 $9.46 $9.33 $9.20
  +1% $9.50 $9.37 $9.24

How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?

This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate

Valuations and comments

  • Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $0.95 (overvalued by 11.21%) - 1 year ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $2.97 (undervalued by 13.79%) - over 5 years ago
  • cdaynes created a new valuation of $3.13 (undervalued by 43.58%) - over 7 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $9.33 (undervalued by 13.09%) - over 8 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $6.40 (undervalued by 13.88%) - over 8 years ago
  • Julian created a new valuation of $4.14 (overvalued by 21.14%) - over 8 years ago
  • Julian created a new valuation of $4.01 (overvalued by 23.62%) - over 8 years ago
  • Julian created a new valuation of $4.97 (overvalued by 5.33%) - over 8 years ago
  • Julian created a new valuation of $6.87 (undervalued by 30.86%) - over 8 years ago
  • NZXCrunchBlog created a new valuation of $6.77 (undervalued by 14.75%) - 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $6.41 (overvalued by 0.47%) - 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $6.41 (overvalued by 0.62%) - 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $7.58 (overvalued by 1.81%) - 9 years ago
  • andrew created a new valuation of $6.40 (overvalued by 23.35%) - over 9 years ago
  • KiwiEMH created a new valuation of $7.86 (overvalued by 0.51%) - over 9 years ago
  • tiger created a new valuation of $6.99 (overvalued by 14.96%) - over 9 years ago
  • Sam created a new valuation of $7.37 (overvalued by 10.34%) - over 9 years ago
  • Sam created a new valuation of $6.83 (overvalued by 15.26%) - over 9 years ago
  • GordonGekko created a new valuation of $8.36 (undervalued by 3.72%) - over 9 years ago

Comments

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The boring details

All amounts in millions Figures
Enterprise Value: 18
Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): -8
Equity Value: 203
Number of Shares Outstanding: 24,000,000
Calculated value per share: $9.33

Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.


Calcuation of EV

Where:

  • C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
  • r - the discount rate

To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.


Perpetuity

Where:

  • Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
  • LTG - the long-term growth rate
  • r - the discount rate
  • g - the terminal growth rate

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.


CAPM model

Where:

  • rt - the risk free rate
  • t - the tax rate
  • B - the beta of the company
  • MRP - the Market Risk Premium

Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.